Morning Briefing — Monday, April 13, 2026

Published 7:00 ET · Informational only, not investment advice

Tape at a glance

What happened overnight

US-Iran peace talks collapsed in Islamabad on Saturday after 21 hours of negotiations. VP Vance announced the failure; President Trump immediately declared a "complete blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz, with US Central Command confirming enforcement begins at 10:00 AM ET today against all vessels. WTI crude surged as much as 9.3% to $104.80 — back above $100 for the first time since the two-week ceasefire drove it below $95 last week. Asia sold off broadly (Nikkei -0.74%, Hang Seng -1.01%, Kospi -0.86%), with China's CSI 300 a lone bright spot at +0.21%. Europe opened weak with the STOXX 600 down 0.7%; travel and leisure led losses at -2.1%, while oil and gas was the only sector in the green. Goldman Sachs reported Q1 before the bell: EPS $17.55 vs. $16.49 expected, revenue $17.23B vs. $16.97B expected, with record equities trading revenue of $5.33B.

Today's calendar

• 09:30 ET — Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings call (results already released: beat on EPS and revenue; record equities trading)
• 10:00 ET — US naval blockade of Iranian ports takes effect (CENTCOM confirmed; this is the session's key binary event)
• 10:00 ET — No tier-1 economic data today; next major release is PPI on Tuesday
• All week — Bank earnings: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, J&J (Tuesday); Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, PNC (Wednesday)

Top 10 trade ideas, ranked by conviction

1. CL (WTI Crude June Futures) — Long

• Asset class: Futures
• Catalyst: US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz begins at 10:00 AM ET. The strait handles ~20 million barrels/day, roughly 20% of global oil consumption. After briefly dipping below $95 during the ceasefire, WTI has surged back above $104 overnight.
• Setup: WTI gapped up 9.3% from Friday's close to $104.80 in overnight trade. The $100 psychological level is now support. Last month's high was $119 (Brent). The market is repricing the probability that this blockade persists for weeks, not days.
• Entry: $104–105 zone on any pullback to the overnight VWAP
• Stop: $99.50 (below the $100 round number and Friday's close)
• Target: $112–115 (midpoint between ceasefire low and pre-ceasefire high)
• Reasoning: The market spent the past week pricing a diplomatic resolution. That thesis just died. Reimposing a blockade on the world's most critical oil chokepoint is not a gradual escalation — it's a step-function change in supply risk. Traders who sold crude on the ceasefire now need to cover. Physical markets will begin repricing delivery risk as the 10am enforcement window approaches. The asymmetry favors longs because any softening of the blockade language (exemptions, delays) only partially unwinds the move, while actual enforcement or Iranian retaliation could push crude well past $115.
• Risk: An emergency diplomatic backchannel reopens, or Trump exempts allied shipping, causing a fast reversal. Also, thin holiday-like liquidity in futures could create choppy fills.
• Conviction: High
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

2. XOM (Exxon Mobil) — Long

• Asset class: Equity
• Catalyst: WTI back above $100 on Hormuz blockade. XOM is the largest US integrated oil company and the most liquid way to express an oil-long view in equities. Pre-market trading around $153 — essentially flat from Friday's $152.51 close, meaning the equity has barely moved relative to the 9% crude surge.
• Setup: XOM has a 52-week range of $93–$158. Friday's close at $152.51 is near the top, but that range was set before crude went back to $105. The stock's beta to oil is approximately 0.5 on daily moves, suggesting $155–158 is achievable on a sustained move in crude.
• Entry: $152.50–153.50 at the open
• Stop: $149.50 (below Thursday's low)
• Target: $157–159
• Reasoning: The equity market hasn't caught up to the overnight crude move yet. Pre-market volume in energy names is thin, and the full repricing happens at the cash open. XOM's Q4 earnings beat ($1.71 vs. $1.68 EPS) and the company's integrated model — upstream production + refining — means it captures margin on both the commodity rise and the widening crack spreads that a supply disruption creates. This is a catch-up trade.
• Risk: Broad market sell-off drags all equities lower, including energy. A surprise diplomatic resolution.
• Conviction: High
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

3. GS (Goldman Sachs) — Long

• Asset class: Equity
• Catalyst: Q1 2026 earnings released this morning — a clear beat. EPS $17.55 vs. $16.49 consensus (+6.4% beat), revenue $17.23B vs. $16.97B expected. Record equities trading revenue of $5.33B (+27% YoY). CEO Solomon cited strong client activity amid volatility.
• Setup: GS has benefited from elevated market volatility all quarter. The beat confirms what the Iran war and associated market swings delivered to trading desks. Fixed income was weaker (-10% YoY) but equities more than compensated.
• Entry: At the open on confirmation of gap-up direction (watch for first 5-minute candle)
• Stop: Below Friday's close (use pre-market low as guide)
• Target: 3–5% above Friday's close (earnings beats of this magnitude in a strong quarter typically move GS 3–6% intraday)
• Reasoning: This is the first major bank to report Q1, and the results set the tone for JPM, C, WFC, and MS later this week. The record equities trading number is a headline-grabber that will drive buy-side rotation into financials ahead of the other reports. The concern about the macro backdrop (Iran, oil, recession fears) is offset by the fact that Goldman thrives in volatility — the worse the macro, the better the trading revenue.
• Risk: Management commentary on the earnings call (9:30 AM) could flag credit deterioration, a weaker M&A pipeline, or a cautious 2026 outlook that overshadows the beat. Also, the broader risk-off session could cap upside.
• Conviction: High
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

4. RTX Corp — Long

• Asset class: Equity
• Catalyst: Escalation of US-Iran conflict directly benefits RTX. Its subsidiary Raytheon manufactures Tomahawk missiles — the US has fired 850+ in Operation Epic Fury. Melius Research estimates $6B in restocking orders. RTX reports Q1 on April 21, providing a near-term earnings catalyst.
• Setup: Pre-market up ~4%. Stock has gained 67% over the past year. Despite the run, the blockade announcement is a fresh escalation that extends the conflict timeline and increases munitions demand.
• Entry: At the open, $340–345 zone (adjust to pre-market levels)
• Stop: 3% below entry
• Target: 5–7% above entry (toward prior highs)
• Reasoning: Defense stocks were already the best-performing sector in 2026 before this weekend. The peace-talk collapse removes the overhang of a quick resolution that had caused some profit-taking in defense names last week. RTX's restocking pipeline is a multi-year revenue stream, not a one-quarter bump. The April 21 earnings date provides a near-term anchor for the long thesis.
• Risk: A surprise diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire extension. Also, defense stocks are crowded — any rotation out of the war trade could be sharp.
• Conviction: Medium-High
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

5. JETS (US Global Jets ETF) — Short

• Asset class: Equity (ETF)
• Catalyst: Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since pre-war levels, with kerosene now ~$4.88/gallon. The Hormuz blockade threatens further supply disruption. European airlines were already down 3–7% in Monday morning trade (Wizz Air -6.9%, Lufthansa -3.9%, EasyJet -3.8%).
• Setup: JETS closed Friday at ~$25.89 after falling from $26.19 earlier in the week. The ETF is down ~12% from its March highs. The 52-week low around $20 provides a downside reference.
• Entry: $25.50–26.00 zone at the open (short)
• Stop: $27.00 (above last week's high)
• Target: $23.50–24.00
• Reasoning: Airlines are caught in a margin vise: fuel costs are spiking while consumer discretionary spending is under pressure from $4+ gasoline. The blockade extends the timeline for elevated jet fuel. Carriers like Delta and United can pass through costs, but it takes quarters — not days — and leisure demand destruction at $4+ gas historically accelerates in spring/summer booking season. This is a structural short, not just a one-day trade.
• Risk: A rapid diplomatic resolution that crashes oil back below $90 would trigger a violent short squeeze in airlines. Also, JETS includes some international carriers that may hedge fuel differently.
• Conviction: Medium-High
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

6. GC (Gold June Futures) — Long

• Asset class: Futures
• Catalyst: Gold dipped 0.59% overnight to $4,723 despite the most significant geopolitical escalation since the war began. This dip looks like profit-taking from last week's ceasefire rally rather than a genuine de-risking of the safe-haven bid.
• Setup: Gold hit an all-time high above $4,800 during the early phase of the Iran war and has traded in a $4,600–$4,800 range since. The $4,700 level has been support on prior pullbacks.
• Entry: $4,700–4,730 zone
• Stop: $4,650 (below the range low)
• Target: $4,850–4,900 (retest of ATH zone)
• Reasoning: The overnight dip is counterintuitive. As the blockade takes effect at 10am and headlines escalate, the safe-haven bid should reassert. Central banks have been accumulating gold at record pace throughout the conflict. The dollar's softness (DXY ~98.65) also supports gold. The risk is that real rates rise if the Fed signals concern about oil-driven inflation, but that's a multi-day narrative, not a today problem.
• Risk: A sharp dollar rally or sudden risk-on reversal on diplomatic headlines.
• Conviction: Medium
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

7. BTC (Bitcoin) — Long

• Asset class: Crypto
• Catalyst: Bitcoin is holding $72,887 — remarkably resilient for a risk-off Monday. Last week's spot ETF inflows hit $471M in a single day (April 6), the largest since February. Iran is reportedly exploring Bitcoin-denominated toll charges for Hormuz transit. The "digital gold" narrative is being stress-tested in real-time and passing.
• Setup: BTC surged from ~$66K to $72.7K on the ceasefire announcement last week. It's given back almost nothing despite the ceasefire collapse. $70,000 is the key support; $75,000 is the resistance that's been rejected three times.
• Entry: $72,500–73,000
• Stop: $69,800 (below the $70K round number)
• Target: $76,000–78,000 (breakout above triple-top resistance)
• Reasoning: Bitcoin's behavior during this crisis has been instructive — it rallied on the ceasefire (risk-on) but hasn't sold off on the ceasefire collapse (safe haven). This dual-narrative positioning means BTC has an asymmetric setup: it benefits from resolution and from escalation. The institutional flows via ETFs are structural, not tactical. The Iran Bitcoin-toll story adds a bizarre but bullish narrative wrinkle.
• Risk: A broad crypto de-risking if equities sell off hard enough to trigger margin calls. SOL and ETH weakness could drag BTC eventually. Regulatory surprise.
• Conviction: Medium
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

8. LMT (Lockheed Martin) — Long

• Asset class: Equity
• Catalyst: Record $194B backlog (2.5x annual sales). Pre-market up ~4.6% on Hormuz blockade escalation. Defense spending tailwinds from the ongoing Iran conflict and bipartisan Congressional support for restocking.
• Setup: LMT has gained ~15% YTD. The pre-market move puts it near 52-week highs. The stock tends to grind higher rather than spike — the defense spending cycle is multi-year.
• Entry: At the open, on any intraday dip in the first 30 minutes
• Stop: 3% below entry
• Target: 4–6% above Friday's close
• Reasoning: While RTX has more direct exposure to the munitions being consumed in the Iran war, LMT's backlog is a stronger indicator of sustained revenue growth. The blockade announcement extends the conflict timeline, which means defense budgets stay elevated for longer. LMT is the steadier, lower-volatility way to play the same theme.
• Risk: Same as RTX — diplomatic surprise. Also, defense stocks have already had a massive run; new money may be more selective.
• Conviction: Medium
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

9. USD/JPY — Short

• Asset class: FX
• Catalyst: The yen is a traditional safe-haven currency, and USD/JPY at 159–160 is stretched near multi-decade highs. Geopolitical escalation historically drives yen appreciation. BOJ normalization policy provides structural yen support.
• Setup: USD/JPY rose to 159.13 on Friday as the dollar strengthened on the ceasefire. With the ceasefire collapsing, the pair should reverse. The 156–157 zone is the next support.
• Entry: Short at 159.00–159.50
• Stop: 160.50 (above recent highs)
• Target: 156.50–157.00
• Reasoning: Japan imports virtually all its oil. In a normal cycle, higher oil is yen-negative because it worsens the trade balance. But in a crisis-of-confidence scenario — which a Hormuz blockade qualifies as — the yen's safe-haven flows overwhelm the trade balance effect. The BOJ's ongoing normalization (they've been tightening while everyone else holds) provides a structural bid. India and other Asian oil importers may also sell dollars to buy local currency, adding to broad dollar weakness.
• Risk: If US yields spike on oil-driven inflation fears, the carry trade could push USD/JPY higher despite the risk-off backdrop. Also, BOJ intervention risk at 160 could work in your favor — or the lack of it could let it run.
• Conviction: Medium
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

10. SPX 0DTE Puts — Long (puts)

• Asset class: Options
• Catalyst: VIX at 19.23 is elevated but has room to expand. The blockade enforcement at 10:00 AM ET is a defined binary event. ES futures already down 0.62% pre-market. The Goldman earnings beat may provide some morning support, but the macro headline risk dominates.
• Setup: SPX implied move for the day is approximately 1% (±68 points from Friday's 6,817 close), so ~6,749–6,885. A move to the low end of that range or beyond is plausible if the blockade triggers follow-on headlines (Iranian retaliation, vessel interceptions).
• Entry: Buy 0DTE SPX puts at the 6,750 strike around 9:45 AM ET, ahead of the 10:00 AM blockade enforcement
• Stop: Time-based — exit if SPX holds above 6,800 by 11:00 AM ET
• Target: SPX 6,720–6,740 zone (1.1–1.4% down on the day)
• Reasoning: The market is pricing a modest risk-off with ES down 0.62%, but the actual implementation of a naval blockade at 10am is an escalatory event that the pre-market move may be underpricing. VIX at 19 is below where it traded during the initial days of the conflict (VIX hit 30+). If enforcement triggers any confrontation, the vol expansion alone makes these puts worth owning for 60–90 minutes around the event window.
• Risk: Goldman's earnings beat and positive bank commentary could stabilize sentiment. The blockade may be "priced in" given overnight futures action. 0DTE options have rapid time decay — this is a pure event trade with a tight time window.
• Conviction: Watch-only (event-dependent)
• Levels note: Entry/stop/target are indicative, derived from headline sources at time of writing. Verify against a live chart before executing.

What I'm watching but not trading

• SOL at $81.83, down 3.8%: Altcoin weakness confirms risk-off within crypto, but the move may be extended for a day trade short. Watching for a break below $80 to reconsider.
• OXY (Occidental Petroleum) at $58.88: Beneficiary of oil surge but Warren Buffett's large position creates a floor/ceiling dynamic that compresses intraday range. Prefer XOM for liquidity.
• JPMorgan (JPM) ahead of Tuesday's earnings: GS set a strong tone with record equities trading. If JPM echoes that (consensus EPS $5.45, revenue $49.1B), financials could have a multi-day run. Positioning ahead of the print is premature today.
• European travel/leisure (Wizz Air -6.9%, Lufthansa -3.9%): The sell-off is severe but these are harder to trade from a US account with tight stops. JETS captures the theme domestically.

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This briefing is generated by an automated research agent using publicly available information. It is not investment advice, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and should not be relied upon for trading decisions without independent verification. Day trading carries substantial risk of loss. Past catalysts do not predict future price action. Do your own research.